Will the Budget 2019 trigger a Bull Run in the Stock Markets?

The Budget 2019 is just 3 days away and shall be presented by the Finance Minister Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman on 5th of July 2019. This is her maiden budget and the expectations from the industry, markets, and the people are many. Will the Budget 2019 trigger a Bull Run in the stock markets? This is one of the biggest speculations. As we all know the stock markets as of now are already in a recession because the economy as a whole is not thriving. How have the budgets impacted the markets in the past? The following data from the 2009 budget and onward to till date reveal some interesting facts:

The above figures are for the changes took place in the Sensex after the Budget from 2009 budget and onward. The first column of the date is the budget date. The second date is one day before the budget. The third date is 15 days after the budget. And the fourth date column is one month after the budget day. The above data shows how the markets have moved before and after the budget days. The last column in % is the percentage change in the Sensex one month after the budget day. The above data of 12 budgets indicate that the Sensex had a positive change after the budget in 8 out of 12 budgets.

As we all know the markets are already in a recession. Of course the Sensex is up by 4,703 points from 1st February 2018 (35,067 points), the last interim budget, to till the writing of this blog today (39,770 points). The stock markets are really expecting a big push and a big boost. And the investors are expecting a bull run trigger or a positive rally from this Budget 2019.

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